For the first time in six weeks, big buyers are absorbing more BTC than miners produce

For the first time since early November, institutional Bitcoin demand is back above miner supply.

Fresh on-chain and flow data from Capriole Investments shows that over the last three days, large buyers have been accumulating more BTC than miners are producing, pushing net circulating supply into mild contraction. Institutional demand is currently running about 13% above daily issuance.

It’s a subtle shift, but it comes after a nasty 30% drawdown from Bitcoin’s October all-time high near $126,000 to recent lows around $80,500.

A broken corporate flywheel, starting to spin again

Capriole’s read is that we’ve just lived through a “broken corporate flywheel” period:

• Publicly traded BTC holders saw **equity valuations crater** and their BTC stacks marked down aggressively.
• Many traded at record **discounts to net asset value (NAV)**.
• Leverage crept up across the sector, amplifying the downside once price started to slip.

Despite that, some of the largest corporate treasuries in the space never stopped buying. They treated the post-high drawdown as another opportunity to add to long-term reserves, even as their share prices got smoked.

Now, with spot around $80k–$90k and some of the forced sellers cleaned out, Capriole’s data shows:

• **Net institutional accumulation > miner issuance** for three consecutive days.
• Issuance-adjusted demand back in the “early accumulation” band — well below peak mania, but firmly out of capitulation territory.

ETF outflows vs strategic accumulation

The interesting twist: this renewed institutional bid comes **alongside** heavy outflows from US-listed spot ETFs.

Data tracked by Farside Investors shows roughly $635 million in net redemptions over just two days — a clear sign that parts of the traditional asset-management complex are still de-risking or taking profit.

On-chain analytics shops frame the moment as a split market:

• Shorter-term, ETF-driven capital is heading for the exits, worried about macro, regulation, or simple drawdown fatigue.
• Longer-horizon entities — corporates, funds with real conviction, high-net-worth self-custodial whales — are quietly absorbing coins at lower prices.

As one CryptoQuant contributor put it, Bitcoin is “oscillating between immediate stress and long-term expectations of appreciation”: short-term pessimism in publicly visible flows, longer-term optimism in the deeper, slower-moving wallets.

Why miner-supply dynamics still matter

The “institutions > miners” metric sounds abstract, but it captures something simple:

• Miners are the **only predictable, mechanical sellers** in the system.
• When someone is buying more BTC than they issue, the **forced-sell overhang shrinks**.
• Over time, that tends to cap downside and set up the next phase of the cycle.

Historically, periods where:

• Net issuance is **fully absorbed** by strong hands, and
• Price has already taken a 25–40% hit from recent highs,

have often lined up with the early part of accumulation ranges — not necessarily the bottom tick, but the zone where patient capital is happy to add risk.

None of that guarantees a V-shaped reversal. But it does change the calculus for anyone thinking about adding or reducing exposure at current levels.

What could break this accumulation wave

There are still clear risks that could overwhelm the current bid:

• **Another leverage flush.** If highly levered players get squeezed again — on crypto venues or in macro portfolios — forced selling could push BTC below the recent lows and reset positioning.
• **Regulatory surprise.** A hostile move on stablecoins, ETFs, or major trading venues in the US or EU could freeze some of the very channels now doing the buying.
• **Macro shock.** A sharper-than-expected slowdown, liquidity crunch, or badly handled central bank pivot could trigger another round of “sell anything with a chart.”

There’s also an uncomfortable point raised by some macro economists: when Bitcoin’s total market cap shrinks, it removes a pool of “funny money” that was bidding for scarce assets elsewhere — from housing to Superbowl tickets. That can actually ease pressure on non-holders by reducing demand for real-world goods from crypto-rich buyers.

From that angle, “institutional accumulation” is a double-edged sword: good for BTC holders, but arguably less good for everyone else if it eventually reflates crypto wealth and re-tightens those bottlenecks.

How serious Bitcoiners can use this signal

If you run mining, treasury, or trading risk in this ecosystem, the current setup gives you a few practical rules of thumb:

• **For miners:** net institutional absorption above issuance is a green light to keep building if your power contracts are solid — but not a license to lever up. Assume ETF flows can remain ugly while deeper pockets accumulate.
• **For corporate treasuries:** this is the window where you dollar-cost-average, not swing for the fences. You’re being paid, in BTC terms, to absorb volatility that weak hands can’t stomach.
• **For traders:** fade the narrative extremes. ETF outflows do not mean “institutions have abandoned Bitcoin,” and three days of on-chain accumulation does not mean the bottom is in.

The bigger picture: supply is tightening again at the margin, even as price action still looks heavy and headlines stay grim. That’s usually how the next phase of a Bitcoin cycle quietly begins — long before normies or pundits notice anything has changed.